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Best AI at the end of 2025?

Gemini

78%

↑4%

ChatGPT

15%

↑1%

$20,045,423 volShow more

Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?

Anthropic

↑1%

Moonshot AI

↑5%

$1,056,441 volShow more

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Jan 1, 2026?

OpenAI

79%

↑67%

Anthropic

19%

↑67%

$1,083,413 volShow more

How many cities will Waymo be operating in at the end of 2025?

87%

↑2%

$1,339,270 volShow more

Will the US say that aliens exist this year?

Before 2026

$2,370,791 vol

Which AI will be the first to hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena?

Gemini

15%

↑5%

ChatGPT

10%

↑1%

$1,032,246 volShow more

What will be the top AI model this month?

gemini-3-pro

87%

↑2%

gemini-2.5-pro

$3,513,051 volShow more

When will Tesla launch unsupervised FSD?

Before Jun 2026

42%

↑5%

Before May 2026

38%

↑1%

$1,911,751 volShow more

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1500 elo score

18%

↑7%

At least 1550 elo score

$333,044 volShow more

Will Samsung release a trifold phone this year?

Before Jan 2026

95%

↑1%

Before Feb 2026

95%

$199,536 vol

TSA avg check-ins from Dec 1 to 7, 2025?

Above 2.45 million

31%

↑21%

Above 2.4 million

81%

↑8%

$5,147,510 volShow more

US grants license for new nuclear reactor?

Grants license

↑4%

$623,564 vol

How much better will OpenAI's models be than Google's?

Above 0 points

17%

↑7%

Above 20 points

↑8%

$89,782 volShow more

Will OpenAI raise the cost of ChatGPT this year?

Before 2026

↑1%

$66,879 vol

How many launches will SpaceX have this year?

Above 180

↑3%

Above 160

93%

↑4%

$552,069 volShow more

Will a Chinese AI model reach #1 this year?

Before 2026

↑3%

$94,904 vol

How high will AI models score on SWE-Bench this year?

At least 80%

35%

↑10%

At least 90%

↑4%

$111,406 vol

New cancer drug passes phase 1 trial?

Passes Phase I, Phase II announced

↑3%

$58,827 vol

Will Meta release Llama 5 before January?

Before 2026

↑2%

$86,906 vol

AI regulation becomes federal law this year?

Before 2026

↑2%

$150,367 vol

Will Shaun Maguire leave Sequoia this year?

Shaun Maguire

12%

↑10%

$13,753 vol

Will the US government mandate security clearances for top AI employees this year?

Before 2026

↑3%

$10,812 vol

Will any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto for any of their core services this year?

In 2025

$31,084 vol

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before August?

Atomic Alchemy

48%

↑1%

Valar Atomics

57%

↑4%

$52,553 volShow more

Where will Stephen Colbert work next this year?

HBO / Max

10%

↑4%

Netflix

14%

↑6%

$15,381 volShow more

Will Elon make a Bluesky account before 2027?

Before 2027

↑3%

$40,183 vol

Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida this year?

Before 2026

↑4%

$16,509 vol

Where will Linda Yaccarino work?

Amazon

↑1%

Omnicom Group

$2,872 volShow more

Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?

Before 2030

50%

↑1%

$43,157 vol

Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket reach orbit this year?

Before 2026

$36,049 vol

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

United States

43%

↑5%

China

30%

↑4%

$41,183 volShow more

Will there be a crewed Starship flight this year?

Before Dec 31, 2025

↑3%

$4,226 vol

Will the upper stage of the SpaceX Starship be recovered intact this year?

In 2025

↑5%

$26,495 vol

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?

Earbuds/Headphones

47%

↑1%

Clip-on device for clothing

48%

$17,034 volShow more

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 this year?

Before 2026

↑3%

$24,007 vol

Will Sam Altman be granted an equity stake in OpenAI this year?

Before Jan 1, 2026

↑2%

$57,386 vol

Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?

Before 2030

21%

↑4%

$18,206 vol

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Before 2030

40%

↑2%

Before 2028

20%

$410,306 volShow more

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?

Before 2030

30%

↑6%

$18,683 vol

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess this year?

Before 2026

↑2%

$58,989 vol

Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?

Before 2027

38%

↑1%

$87,027 vol

Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen?

Before 2027

22%

↑8%

$4,492 vol

Which of these smaller space companies will launch next?

Neutron

↑4%

Terran R

$9,214 volShow more

New York Times settles OpenAI lawsuit?

New York Times settles

15%

↑4%

$43,082 vol

Highest score of any LLM on OSWorld this year?

At least 70

20%

↑16%

At least 80

13%

$26,518 volShow more

SpaceX Starship 12th launch?

Before March

55%

↑12%

Before February

26%

↑3%

$2,545,191 volShow more

How big is 3I/ATLAS?

More than 2.0 km

63%

↑13%

More than 1.5 km

77%

↑6%

$10,815 volShow more

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Before 2035

55%

Before 2030

42%

↑2%

$8,837 volShow more

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?

Before 2030

66%

$1,821 vol

Will Meta release an AI model that isn't open source this year?

Before 2025

12%

↑8%

$15,439 vol

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?

Before 2050

13%

$1,350 vol

Will Neuralink or another company livestream brain data over the internet this year?

Before 2026

$2,836 vol

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?

Before 2035

37%

↑1%

$16,534 vol

Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027?

Before 2027

10%

$3,537 vol

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?

Before 2050

17%

↑4%

$2,353 vol

How much compute will AI models be trained with this year?

More than 500 billion petaFLOP

20%

More than 750 billion petaFLOP

16%

↑1%

$23,905 vol

How many non-SpaceX US commercial space launches will there be this year?

At least 30

At least 45

$9,281 vol

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

Before 2040

44%

Before 2035

39%

$7,571 volShow more

NASA lands on the moon?

Before 2028

13%

↑2%

Before 2027

↑2%

$153,721 volShow more

US semiconductor production growth this year?

Above 16%

69%

↑3%

Above 14%

68%

↑4%

$23,828 volShow more

EV market share in 2030?

Above 30%

46%

Above 20%

73%

↑6%

$11,718 volShow more

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?

Before 2030

74%

$15,892 vol

New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?

New York Times wins

58%

↑1%

$36,367 vol

Will Tesla announce a gas or hybrid car this year?

In 2025

$116,935 vol

Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?

Before 2028

68%

$15,359 vol

Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?

Before 2028

63%

$2,891 vol

Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature this year?

Confirmed

↑1%

$39,418 vol

How many Starship launches will reach space this year?

4 to 6

95%

↑4%

13 to 15

↑1%

$81,148 volShow more

Will a Millennium Prize be awarded this year?

In 2025

↑4%

$4,003 vol

Will Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?

Before 2027

58%

↑8%

$5,912 vol

Who will leave xAI this year?

Zihang Dai

Daniel Rowland

$1,237 volShow more

Who will leave OpenAI this year?

Brad Lightcap

10%

↑86%

Greg Brockman

13%

$1,193 volShow more

Who will leave Meta this year?

Chris Cox

Andrew Bosworth

$48,576 volShow more

Will Jony Ive leave OpenAI this year?

Before 2026

$706 vol

Who will leave Anthropic this year?

Jan Leike

Jack Clark

$256 volShow more

Will California pass a law mandating AI models have a 'kill switch'?

Before Jan 1, 2026

↑1%

$51,791 vol

Who will join xAI this year?

Will Depue

12%

Srinivas Narayanan

21%

$4,282 volShow more

Who will join OpenAI this year?

Jack Clark

Igor Babuschkin

$5 volShow more

Who will join Meta this year?

Greg Brockman

Jimmy Ba

$380 volShow more

Where will Andrej Karpathy work next?

Tesla

$3,083 volShow more

Will Shannon Sharpe join Barstool Sports this year?

Barstool Sports

10%

$3,132 vol

Who will join Anthropic this year?

Alexandr Wang

Igor Babuschkin

$0 volShow more

Will Apple announce any iPhone assembly operations in the US this year?

In 2025

↑5%

$5,799 vol

AI wins IMO gold medal this year?

Before Jan 1, 2026

↑2%

$361,810 vol

Will SpaceX test its HLS before 2027?

Before 2027

23%

$6,946 vol

Who will win the Fields Medal next year?

John Pardon

35%

Jacob Tsimerman

60%

↑7%

$3,870 volShow more

Will Donald Trump launch a metaverse this year?

Before 2026

$2,811 vol

Will DeepSeek be banned in the US this year?

Before 2026

$45,623 vol

Will an open-source AI model reach #1 this year?

Before 2026

↑6%

$22,906 vol

Will Anthropic release an "AI Safety Level 3" model before 2027?

Before 2027

86%

$56,528 vol

AI passes Turing test before 2030?

Before 2030

66%

$12,104 vol

Will any top AI company decide to not release their best models this year?

Before 2026

$11,575 vol

Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027?

Before 2027

51%

$447 vol

Will the US and China make an agreement to limit frontier AI work this year?

Before 2026

$459 vol

Will a paper with AI as an author be published this year?

Before 2026

$17,957 vol

What will be the price of a foldable iPhone?

At least $2200

53%

At least $2000

83%

$2,849 volShow more