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  1. Inflation

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Series Image
  1. Inflation

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Begins in 150 days · Jan 13, 6:00am EST
Chance
Soft landing
Below 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation

59.1%

▼ 2.9
Soft landing
Below 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation

59.1%

▼ 2.9
Overheating
Below 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation

31.3%

▲ 1
Overheating
Below 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation

31.3%

▲ 1
Stagflation
At least 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation

11%

▲ 3.3
Stagflation
At least 5% unemployment and at least 3.5% inflation

11%

▲ 3.3
Slack / disinflation
At least 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation

4%

▼ 2.3
Slack / disinflation
At least 5% unemployment and below 3.5% inflation

4%

▼ 2.3

Soft landing

Odds
0% chance
Max payoutJan 13, 2027

$0

$81,588 vol
1D
1W
1M
ALL