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Politics
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Kevin Hassett
Kevin Hassett
71%
↑15%
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh
15%
↑9%
$6,447,311 volShow more
21
Who will be elected President of Honduras?
Nasry Asfura
Nasry Asfura
93%
↑34%
Salvador Nasralla
Salvador Nasralla
7%
↑30%
$3,345,843 volShow more
3
Who will leave their role in the Trump Administration this year?
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
8%
Kash Patel
Kash Patel
7%
$3,270,481 volShow more
12
Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom
36%
↑1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10%
$30,350,748 volShow more
36
Trump out as President this year?
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
0%
↑1%
$9,127,814 vol
Republican nominee in 2028?
J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance
50%
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
8%
↑1%
$8,310,863 volShow more
26
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
32%
↑2%
Pam Bondi
Pam Bondi
13%
↑1%
$2,972,016 volShow more
23
World leaders out this year?
Nicolás Maduro
Nicolás Maduro
13%
↑5%
Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer
4%
$2,016,227 volShow more
11
Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended this year?
legislation extending enhanced ACA premium tax credits
17%
↑10%
$846,151 vol
Which party will win the U.S. House next year?
Democratic Party
Democratic Party
76%
↑1%
Republican Party
Republican Party
24%
↑1%
$5,077,081 vol
When will Trump announce his new Chair of the Federal Reserve?
Before January 15
62%
↑1%
Before 2026
16%
↑4%
$1,295,052 volShow more
4
How much government spending will Trump cut this year?
At least 1 billion
At least 1 billion
6%
At least 25 billion
At least 25 billion
5%
$5,861,451 volShow more
7
What will Powell say during his December press conference?
Probability
Probability
51%
↑2%
Tariff Inflation
Tariff Inflation
55%
↑3%
$5,496,314 volShow more
39
Who will President Trump pardon this year?
Justin Sun
Justin Sun
10%
↑4%
Steve Bannon
Steve Bannon
8%
↑1%
$8,886,963 volShow more
22
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve this year?
Before Jan 1, 2026
Before Jan 1, 2026
2%
↑3%
$2,670,608 vol
Next US Presidential Election Winner?
J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance
30%
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom
21%
$4,723,679 volShow more
19
Republican nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton
52%
↑4%
John Cornyn
John Cornyn
35%
↑2%
$443,816 volShow more
3
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Before 2028
24%
↑2%
$1,365,387 vol
Will Trump release any of the Epstein Files?
Before Dec 20, 2025
Before Dec 20, 2025
62%
Before 2026
Before 2026
75%
↑7%
$7,361,159 volShow more
6
Who will Trump meet with this year?
Justin Trudeau
Justin Trudeau
11%
↑3%
Nicolás Maduro
Nicolás Maduro
9%
↑2%
$2,644,462 volShow more
1
The President's RCP approval rating on Jan 1, 2026?
42.0 to 42.9
42.0 to 42.9
32%
↑3%
43.0 to 43.9
43.0 to 43.9
27%
↑7%
$521,279 volShow more
10
Who will run for public office next year?
Danica Patrick
Danica Patrick
27%
Casey DeSantis
Casey DeSantis
21%
$68,552 volShow more
9
Will Trump be impeached?
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2028
54%
↑2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027
23%
↑2%
$421,816 volShow more
2
Will Zohran Mamdani be arrested before January?
Before Jan 2026
1%
↑2%
$187,767 vol
Will Trump eliminate the Department of Education this year?
Before Jan 1, 2026
2%
↑1%
$3,981,895 vol
Who will win the Chilean presidential election?
José Antonio Kast
José Antonio Kast
97%
↑1%
Jeannette Jara
Jeannette Jara
3%
↑2%
$1,742,057 volShow more
10
Powell out as Chair?
Before May 2026
Before May 2026
17%
↑2%
Before 2026
Before 2026
3%
↑1%
$7,860,458 vol
Will Nord Stream 2 open?
Before 2027
15%
Before 2026
2%
↑1%
$24,653 vol
Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?
Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds
74%
↑8%
James Fishback
James Fishback
13%
↑17%
$135,692 volShow more
5
Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Graham Platner
Graham Platner
66%
↑3%
Janet Mills
Janet Mills
38%
↑1%
$1,131,435 volShow more
5
Will daylight saving become permanent this year?
Becomes law
1%
$220,141 vol
December 2025 Fed Combo: Rate & Dissents
Federal funds rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0
Federal funds rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0
93%
↑1%
Federal funds rate: No change, Dissents: >0
Federal funds rate: No change, Dissents: >0
8%
↑1%
$87,958 volShow more
2
Minnesota Governorship Winner?
Democratic party
Democratic party
74%
↑7%
Republican party
Republican party
29%
↑3%
$48,696 vol
Who will be the next governor of California?
Eric Swalwell
Eric Swalwell
44%
↑3%
Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer
16%
$574,764 volShow more
21
Will Marijuana be Rescheduled?
Before 2027
Before 2027
61%
↑2%
Before 2026
Before 2026
5%
↑2%
$228,114 vol
World leaders out before 2027?
Viktor Orbán
Viktor Orbán
48%
↑8%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
42%
↑4%
$60,788 volShow more
27
Who will visit the White House before January?
Laura Loomer
Laura Loomer
59%
↑8%
Brian Kemp
Brian Kemp
6%
↑11%
$1,459,458 volShow more
20
Which party will win the U.S. Senate next year?
Republican Party
Republican Party
68%
Democratic Party
Democratic Party
33%
↑1%
$2,448,777 vol
Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Jasmine Crockett
Jasmine Crockett
44%
James Talarico
James Talarico
39%
↑1%
$230,632 volShow more
9
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy resign this year?
Before 2026
2%
↑2%
$225,762 vol
Will Susie Wiles still be Trump's Chief of Staff on Jan 1, 2026?
On Jan 1, 2026
92%
↑1%
$43,153 vol
Deportations in Trump's first year?
At least 500,000
At least 500,000
21%
↑6%
At least 2,000,000
At least 2,000,000
5%
↑4%
$1,105,605 volShow more
3
Who will be arrested before 2027?
Han Duck-soo
Han Duck-soo
54%
Mahmoud Khalil
Mahmoud Khalil
39%
$1,226,833 volShow more
20
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2025?
Kevin Hassett
10%
↑19%
Kevin Warsh
9%
↑4%
$37,947 volShow more
4
Who will win the governorship in Arizona?
Democratic party
Democratic party
58%
↑4%
Republican party
Republican party
44%
↑1%
$68,112 vol
Peak US National Debt this year?
At least $39 trillion
At least $39 trillion
4%
At least $40 trillion
At least $40 trillion
6%
$113,748 volShow more
7
How many Supreme Court justices will vote for Trump's tariffs?
3
3
42%
↑14%
4
4
19%
↑2%
$106,546 volShow more
8
Who will win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
Democratic party
Democratic party
83%
↑1%
Republican party
Republican party
21%
$48,199 vol
November 2025 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
Unemployment rate (U3): >4.6%, Non-farm payroll growth: <50k
Unemployment rate (U3): >4.6%, Non-farm payroll growth: <50k
10%
↑1%
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k
9%
↑1%
$25,276 volShow more
3
How many government employees will Trump cut in 2025?
More than 250,000
More than 250,000
13%
↑1%
More than 500,000
More than 500,000
5%
↑1%
$1,439,013 volShow more
2
Democratic nominee for Governor in New York?
Kathy Hochul
Kathy Hochul
87%
↑1%
Antonio Delgado
Antonio Delgado
13%
↑4%
$126,085 volShow more
7
Who will win the Senate race in Iowa?
Republican party
Republican party
66%
↑3%
Democratic party
Democratic party
35%
$50,195 vol
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in December?
1
1
37%
↑13%
2
2
40%
↑18%
$1,527,572 volShow more
4
Who will be charged with a federal crime before 2027?
Jack Smith
Jack Smith
49%
↑8%
James Clapper
James Clapper
57%
↑1%
$5,799 volShow more
20
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
During Trump's term
During Trump's term
30%
↑2%
$413,722 vol
Which vaccines will RFK end recommendations for this year?
Hepatitis B
4%
↑1%
Yellow Fever
3%
↑4%
$430,406 volShow more
25
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before August 2026
Before August 2026
28%
↑3%
Before 2026
Before 2026
2%
$731,288 vol
Will a bill that prefunds HSAs/FSAs become law this year?
Yes
6%
↑1%
No
94%
↑1%
$42,810 vol
Who will win the Bucharest mayoral election?
Ciprian Ciucu
Ciprian Ciucu
41%
↑16%
Daniel Baluta
Daniel Baluta
43%
↑17%
$41,837 volShow more
11
December 2025 CPI Combo: CPI & CPI (YoY)
CPI: Above 0.1%, YOYCPI: Above 2.9%
CPI: Above 0.1%, YOYCPI: Above 2.9%
76%
↑76%
CPI: Above 0.2%, YOYCPI: Above 3.1%
CPI: Above 0.2%, YOYCPI: Above 3.1%
6%
↑1%
$66,595 volShow more
3
Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?
Before 2027
26%
↑26%
Before 2026
3%
↑2%
$82,436 vol
Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
Before Nov 3, 2026
Before Nov 3, 2026
41%
↑13%
Before July 2026
Before July 2026
38%
↑16%
$104,168 volShow more
1
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
Before July 2026
Before July 2026
66%
↑66%
Before 2027
Before 2027
76%
↑76%
$382,693 volShow more
1
Will Israel and Syria normalize relations this year?
Before Jan 1, 2026
3%
$311,139 vol
Will Trump sue the BBC this year?
Before Jan 2026
Before Jan 2026
8%
↑16%
$23,507 vol
Which countries will impose tariffs on the US this year?
Russia
Russia
10%
↑1%
China
China
6%
↑3%
$407,751 volShow more
31
Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
Before 2027
42%
↑5%
Before April 2026
23%
$2,112,569 volShow more
1
Donald Trump out as President before 2027?
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
22%
↑1%
$175,160 vol
What countries will Trump visit this year?
Hungary
Hungary
5%
↑2%
Germany
Germany
4%
↑4%
$2,245,434 volShow more
24
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
44%
↑4%
Gretchen Whitmer
Gretchen Whitmer
60%
↑7%
$161,881 volShow more
31
Will Trump meet Putin again this year?
Vladimir Putin
8%
↑3%
$117,530 vol
Will Trump try to fire Jerome Powell this year?
Yes
3%
↑1%
No
97%
↑1%
$59,511 vol
When will France announce a snap election?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027
55%
Before Jan 1, 2026
Before Jan 1, 2026
4%
↑1%
$44,315 vol
What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on January 1, 2026?
Between 20% and 29.99%
Between 20% and 29.99%
77%
Between 10% and 19.99%
Between 10% and 19.99%
11%
↑5%
$359,975 volShow more
5
US controls part of Greenland, Canada, and Panama Canal this year?
Before 2026
Before 2026
1%
$1,232,437 vol
Who will win the Senate race in West Virginia?
Republican party
Republican party
97%
Democratic party
Democratic party
5%
$4,301 vol
Who will visit Mar-a-Lago before 2026?
Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu
22%
↑2%
Mohammed bin Salman
Mohammed bin Salman
3%
↑7%
$173,281 volShow more
8
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?
Before 2027
Before 2027
54%
Before 2026
Before 2026
1%
↑1%
$259,854 volShow more
1
Will Trump cut income taxes for the highest earners this year?
Yes
2%
↑1%
No
98%
↑1%
$278,641 vol
Who will win the governorship in Florida?
Republican party
Republican party
91%
↑1%
Democratic party
Democratic party
11%
$6,347 vol
Chuck Schumer out as Senate Minority Leader?
Before Nov 3, 2026
Before Nov 3, 2026
30%
Before July 2026
Before July 2026
36%
↑16%
$107,018 volShow more
1
Who will win the governorship in Ohio?
Republican party
Republican party
62%
↑4%
Democratic party
Democratic party
38%
↑1%
$45,798 vol
Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?
Oman
Oman
19%
↑3%
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
27%
↑5%
$126,390 volShow more
9
Will Zelenskyy be removed by the Ukrainian parliament this year?
Before 2026
2%
$39,930 vol
Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina?
Alan Wilson
50%
↑11%
Pamela Evette
33%
↑2%
$42,006 volShow more
3