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Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Republicans have a 99% chance to control the Senate

Early forecasts · 80 days to Election
44DemocratsDem seats
51 to win
51to win
RepublicansRep seats51
47 current Democratic seats53 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 10
DColorado99%DFlorida99%DGeorgia92%DKansas96%DMassachusetts99%DNorth Carolina92%DNebraska96%DSouth Dakota96%DTennessee96%DWyoming98%

Likely Democratic

Total 0
No races

Lean Democratic

Total 0
No races

Toss-up

Total 5Dem 4Rep 1
RIowa55%DMaine58%DMichigan56%DOhio54%DTexas51%

Lean Republican

Total 1
RAlabama72%

Likely Republican

Total 2
RSouth Carolina83%RWest Virginia90%

Safe Republican

Total 17
RAlaska96%RArkansas96%RDelaware99%RIdaho96%RIllinois99%RKentucky96%RLouisiana98%RMinnesota96%RMississippi96%RMontana95%RNew Hampshire93%RNew Jersey96%RNew Mexico96%ROklahoma96%ROregon96%RRhode Island99%RVirginia96%

More markets

129 events
MarketPays outOdds
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$2 vol
Bo French
--
Jon Rosenthal
--
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2 vol
Democratic Party
--
Republican Party
--
Other US Elections

Alaska State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Ohio State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

New Hampshire State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

New Hampshire State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Georgia State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Nevada State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Florida State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Maine State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Ohio State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Alaska State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

North Carolina State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

North Carolina State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Michigan State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Maine State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
3.08x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Other US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Georgia State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Wisconsin State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Nevada State Assembly winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Texas State House winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
--
Republican party
--
Other US Elections

Iowa State Senate winner?

$2 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
--
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
--

Combos

Senate

Which Senate race will be the closest next year?

Florida
Florida
Florida
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
$60 vol17 markets
Senate

Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

48
56
$53 vol14 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

45
46
$30 vol10 markets
Senate

Maine-Texas Senate Combo

Ken Paxton and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
$18 vol6 markets
US Elections

How many Republican senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 2
5 or more
$18 vol6 markets
Senate

How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$18 vol6 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Above 57
Below 45
$16 vol15 markets
Senate

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Above 57
Below 53
$15 vol7 markets
Senate

Texas Senate: Exact outcome

Cornyn defeats Talarico
Paxton defeats Talarico
$13 vol4 markets
Senate

Maine Senate Exact Outcome

Graham Platner wins
Republican defeats Graham Platner
$12 vol4 markets
Texas
D
James TalaricoTalarico
R
Ken PaxtonPaxton
50%
50%
Maine
D
Troy JacksonJackson
R
Susan CollinsCollins*
65%
35%
Michigan
D
Abdul El-SayedEl-Sayed
R
Mike RogersRogers
55%
45%
Ohio
D
Sherrod BrownBrown
R
Jon HustedHusted*
54%
46%
Iowa
D
Josh TurekTurek
R
Ashley HinsonHinson
46%
54%
North Carolina
D
Roy CooperCooper
R
Michael WhatleyWhatley
92%
8%
Georgia
D
Jon OssoffOssoff*
R
Mike CollinsCollins
92%
8%
South Carolina
D
Annie AndrewsAndrews
R
Republican partyRepublican
11%
89%
Nebraska
I
Dan OsbornOsborn
R
Pete RickettsRicketts*
30%
70%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
52%
48%
Montana
I
Seth BodnarBodnar
R
Kurt AlmeAlme
7%
93%
Kansas
D
Adam HamiltonHamilton
R
Roger MarshallMarshall*
21%
79%
Minnesota
D
Peggy FlanaganFlanagan
R
Michele TafoyaTafoya
88%
12%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
88%
12%
Florida
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
18%
82%
Kentucky
D
Charles BookerBooker
R
Andy BarrBarr
7%
93%
Mississippi
D
Scott ColomColom
R
Cindy Hyde-SmithHyde-Smith*
11%
89%
Idaho
I
Todd AchillesAchilles
R
Jim RischRisch*
8%
92%
New Jersey
D
Cory BookerBooker*
R
Justin MurphyMurphy
98%
2%
Tennessee
D
Marquita BradshawBradshaw
R
Bill HagertyHagerty*
3%
97%
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