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Climate change

Daily temperature

Hourly temperature

Natural disasters

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Yes

1.52x

No

2.59x

$365,818 vol1 market

September temperature increase?

1.30001 or above

1.15x

1.24 to 1.30

5.25x

$13,800 vol6 markets

This September is the hottest September ever?

Yes

31.2x

No

1.02x

$35,511 vol1 market

Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026

Below 3.6 million sq km

93.5x

Below 4.0 million sq km

93.5x

$18,402 vol9 markets

India meets its 2030 climate goals?

Yes

1.42x

No

2.52x

$12,999 vol1 market

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Yes

1.42x

No

2.66x

$20,844 vol1 market

US meets its climate goals?

By 2030

4.98x

By 2025

6.29x

$63,396 vol2 markets

EU meets its 2030 climate goals?

Yes

2.01x

No

1.73x

$4,405 vol1 market