What are the odds Republicans keep the House in 2026?

According to Kalshi prediction markets, traders are actively pricing the odds of Republicans keeping the House in 2026. See live odds above.

What are the 2026 midterm election predictions?

Kalshi's real-money markets give the most accurate forecast for the 2026 midterms. See live odds above.

Who is favored to win the 2026 Senate races?

Kalshi aggregates trader sentiment across all 2026 Senate races to produce real-time probability estimates. Browse live odds above.

What is a prediction market for elections?

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Primaries Odds & Predictions 2026

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Governer

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Byron Donalds

1.05x

James Fishback

31.2x

$8,595,397 vol9 markets

Senate

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Abdul El-Sayed

1.26x

Haley Stevens

4.13x

$1,823,508 vol9 markets

Governor

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

At least 5%

1.62x

At least 10%

2.59x

$615,840 vol7 markets

Primaries

MI-07 Democratic nominee?

Bridget Brink

1.57x

William Lawrence

2.52x

$163,804 vol3 markets

Primaries

Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

Francesca Hong

1.97x

Sara Rodriguez

2.81x

$698,037 vol11 markets

Primaries

MO-04 Democratic nominee?

Hartzell Gray 3rd

1.52x

G Rick

7.25x

$38,301 vol7 markets

Governor

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Larry Rhoden

1.67x

Toby Doeden

2.24x

$1,046,142 vol4 markets

Primaries

FL-20 Democratic nominee?

Elijah Manley

1.76x

Debbie Wasserman Schultz

2.29x

$47,208 vol7 markets

Primaries

MI-13 Democratic nominee?

Donavan McKinney

1.18x

Shri Thanedar

4.51x

$81,551 vol5 markets

Primaries

AZ-04 Democratic nominee?

Greg Stanton

1.06x

Kai Newkirk

13.4x

$89,996 vol2 markets

Primaries

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Mazzei

1.23x

Gentner Drummond

5.25x

$885,556 vol7 markets

Primaries

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

Mark Lamb

1.19x

Daniel Keenan

5.90x

$114,602 vol4 markets

Primaries

WI-06 Democratic nominee?

Brad Smith

1.25x

Amanda Bell

4.13x

$27,688 vol8 markets

Primaries

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

Amish Shah

1.52x

Marlene Galán-Woods

4.51x

$43,001 vol6 markets

Primaries

MO-01 Democratic nominee?

Cori Bush

1.60x

Wesley Bell

2.40x

$200,985 vol2 markets

Primaries

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Ed Markey

1.28x

Seth Moulton

3.66x

$137,507 vol4 markets

Primaries

AZ-01 Republican nominee?

Jay Feely

1.14x

Joseph Chaplik

6.29x

$48,235 vol9 markets

Primaries

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

Ashley Moody

1.02x

Jay Collins

93.5x

$105,024 vol10 markets

Primaries

Tennessee Republican Governor nominee?

Marsha Blackburn

1.03x

Monty Fritts

31.2x

$40,291 vol3 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee?

Amy Klobuchar

1.01x

Tim Walz

93.5x

$470,064 vol10 markets

Primaries

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Keith Gross

2.09x

Evan Power

3.08x

$74,956 vol8 markets

Primaries

TN-09 Republican nominee?

Brent Taylor

1.26x

Todd Warner

3.08x

$28,023 vol4 markets

Primaries

MN-08 Democratic nominee?

Trina Swanson

1.06x

Luke Gulbranson

11.7x

$4,761 vol6 markets

Primaries

WI-01 Democratic nominee?

Mitchell Berman

1.22x

Peter Burgelis

4.31x

$5,327 vol8 markets

Primaries

How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year?

2.05x

2.29x

$250,986 vol8 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Lisa Demuth

2.24x

Mike Lindell

3.29x

$219,684 vol8 markets

Primaries

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

Click Bishop

1.97x

Dave Bronson

2.09x

$90,414 vol16 markets

Primaries

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Randy Fine

1.05x

Daniel Bilzerian

23.4x

$249,633 vol6 markets

Primaries

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

John James

1.15x

Perry Johnson

8.56x

$347,062 vol15 markets

Primaries

Arizona Republican Governor nominee?

Andy Biggs

1.01x

Christian Grey

93.5x

$89,376 vol10 markets

Primaries

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

Jared Moskowitz

1.29x

Oliver Larkin

3.96x

$156,294 vol3 markets

Primaries

CT-01 Democratic nominee?

Luke Bronin

1.22x

John Larson

4.31x

$13,787 vol6 markets

Primaries

CT-05 Republican nominee?

Chris Shea

1.07x

Michele Botelho

31.2x

$11,590 vol4 markets

Primaries

MA-08 Democratic nominee?

Stephen Lynch

1.60x

Patrick Roath

2.19x

$17,582 vol2 markets

Primaries

FL-07 Republican nominee?

Ryan Elijah

1.76x

Cory Mills

2.19x

$4,583 vol4 markets

Governor

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

Jay Collins

1.86x

James Fishback

2.46x

$99,501 vol5 markets

Primaries

MN-06 Democratic nominee?

Doug Chapin

1.03x

Jeremy Wicklund

23.4x

$12,265 vol5 markets

Primaries

Arizona Republican Attorney General nominee?

Warren Petersen

1.16x

Rodney Glassman

4.98x

$28,433 vol3 markets

Primaries

FL-16 Republican nominee?

Sydney Gruters

1.10x

Ed Pope

31.2x

$194,401 vol14 markets

Primaries

MN-07 Republican nominee?

Michelle Fischbach

1.02x

Dave Hughes

13.4x

$1,154 vol2 markets

Primaries

Florida Democratic Governor nominee?

David Jolly

1.02x

Daniella Levine Cava

93.5x

$28,396 vol9 markets

Primaries

WI-04 Democratic nominee?

Gwen Moore

1.03x

Amy Donahue

15.6x

$1,066 vol3 markets

Primaries

WI-03 Democratic nominee?

Rebecca Cooke

1.19x

Emily Berge

4.31x

$8,305 vol3 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Peggy Flanagan

1.19x

Angie Craig

4.98x

$148,825 vol9 markets

Primaries

WI-06 Republican nominee?

Glenn Grothman

1.04x

Jonathan Peetz

23.4x

$14,577 vol2 markets

Primaries

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: voter turnout

Above 1.3M

1.86x

Above 1.2M

1.55x

$1,993 vol6 markets

Primaries

LA-01 Republican nominee?

Steve Scalise

10.4x

Randall Arrington

11.7x

$129,208 vol2 markets

Primaries

WI-08 Democratic nominee?

Rick Crosson

2.05x

Mark Scheffler

2.73x

$1,922 vol4 markets

Primaries

Democratic Senate primaries combo

Yes

93.5x

$131,176 vol1 market

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Michele Tafoya

1.04x

Royce White

46.8x

$80,455 vol9 markets

Elections

2026 Primaries

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

MI-07 Democratic nominee?

Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

MO-04 Democratic nominee?

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

FL-20 Democratic nominee?

MI-13 Democratic nominee?

AZ-04 Democratic nominee?

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

WI-06 Democratic nominee?

AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

MO-01 Democratic nominee?

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

AZ-01 Republican nominee?

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

Tennessee Republican Governor nominee?

Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee?

FL-02 Republican nominee?

TN-09 Republican nominee?

MN-08 Democratic nominee?

WI-01 Democratic nominee?

How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year?

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Arizona Republican Governor nominee?

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

CT-01 Democratic nominee?

CT-05 Republican nominee?

MA-08 Democratic nominee?

FL-07 Republican nominee?

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

MN-06 Democratic nominee?

Arizona Republican Attorney General nominee?

FL-16 Republican nominee?

MN-07 Republican nominee?

Florida Democratic Governor nominee?

WI-04 Democratic nominee?

WI-03 Democratic nominee?

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

WI-06 Republican nominee?

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: voter turnout

LA-01 Republican nominee?

WI-08 Democratic nominee?

Democratic Senate primaries combo

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?