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Fed

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US FED

Fed decision in October?

Fed maintains rate
1.73x
Hike 25bps
2.24x
$4,737,310 vol5 markets
Fed

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Above 4.50%
1.57x
Above 3.75%
1.23x
$89,337 vol21 markets
US FED

Fed funds rate after October meeting?

Above 4.00%
2.09x
Above 5.00%
93.5x
$220,766 vol11 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 0 cuts
1.05x
Exactly 1 cut
23.4x
$10,061,633 vol21 markets
Fed

Number of rate hikes this year?

Exactly 2
1.90x
Exactly 3
2.98x
$110,475 vol4 markets
Fed

SOFR for September 29, 2026

Exactly 3.88%
1.12x
Exactly 3.89%
2.24x
$8,367 vol7 markets
Fed

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2027
1.18x
Before July 2027
1.06x
$48,846 vol5 markets
Fed

October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0
2.81x
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
3.08x
$5,276 vol6 markets
Fed

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 2
1.93x
Exactly 3
2.24x
$139,521 vol12 markets
Fed

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

Above 4.90%
1.52x
Above 4.80%
1.06x
$43,660 vol22 markets
Fed

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Yes
23.4x
No
1.04x
$1,374,351 vol1 market
US FED

How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting?

0
2.01x
1
3.52x
$6,534 vol6 markets
Fed

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Dot Plot Omitted
2.73x
Reserve President Rejected
4.73x
$45,930 vol5 markets
Economics

Will the Fed schedule fewer than eight policy meetings a year?

Yes
2.19x
No
1.50x
$7,886 vol1 market
Fed

Total Fed dissents in 2026

Exactly 7
2.89x
Exactly 8
3.40x
$200 vol7 markets
US FED

Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting?

Beth Hammack
3.66x
Neel Kashkari
4.73x
$9,308 vol12 markets
Fed

SOFR at end of Q3 2026

Above 4.25%
6.29x
Above 5.00%
6.29x
$5,197 vol4 markets
Fed

Next Fed rate cut?

Before 2028
2.29x
Before July 2028
1.52x
$187 vol5 markets
Fed

Will rates hit zero this year?

Yes
23.4x
No
1.01x
$60,639 vol1 market
Fed

Number of emergency rate cuts this year?

0 cuts
1.01x
1 cuts
23.4x
$475,417 vol5 markets
Fed

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

Yes
13.4x
No
1.04x
$181,691 vol1 market
Fed

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Before Jan 1, 2031
1.19x
Before Jan 1, 2030
6.29x
$8,154 vol5 markets
Fed

Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?

Michael Faulkender
2.14x
David Altig
3.40x
$23 vol5 markets
Fed

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Yes
31.2x
No
1.01x
$644,978 vol1 market