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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have a 91% chance to control the House

Forecasts · 33 days to Election
230DemocratsDem seats
218 to win
218to win
RepublicansRep seats200
212 current Democratic seats219 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 204
AL-07
D97%
AZ-03
D97%
AZ-04
D95%
AZ-07
D92%
CA-01
D93%
CA-02
D99%
CA-03
D97%
CA-04
D100%
CA-06
D93%
CA-07
D100%
CA-08
D93%
CA-09
D92%
CA-10
D96%
CA-11
D100%
CA-12
D100%
CA-13
D94%
CA-14
D100%
CA-15
D94%
CA-16
D95%
CA-17
D98%
CA-18
D94%
CA-19
D98%
CA-21
D91%
CA-22
D91%
CA-24
D97%
CA-25
D98%
CA-26
D93%
CA-27
D93%
CA-28
D91%
CA-29
D100%
CA-30
D96%
CA-31
D92%
CA-32
D98%
CA-33
D96%
CA-34
D100%
CA-35
D94%
CA-36
D94%
CA-37
D100%
CA-38
D92%
CA-39
D93%
CA-41
D93%
CA-42
D96%
CA-43
D98%
CA-44
D94%
CA-45
D92%
CA-46
D93%
CA-47
D93%
CA-48
D92%
CA-49
D96%
CA-50
D92%
CA-51
D98%
CA-52
D97%
CO-01
D98%
CO-02
D97%
CO-06
D98%
CO-07
D96%
CT-01
D97%
CT-02
D97%
CT-03
D96%
CT-04
D99%
CT-05
D97%
DE-AL
D99%
FL-10
D96%
FL-20
D96%
FL-23
D96%
FL-24
D94%
GA-02
D95%
GA-04
D97%
GA-05
D95%
GA-06
D97%
GA-13
D98%
HI-01
D93%
HI-02
D93%
IL-01
D97%
IL-02
D95%
IL-03
D92%
IL-04
D97%
IL-05
D96%
IL-06
D95%
IL-07
D95%
IL-08
D94%
IL-09
D95%
IL-10
D95%
IL-11
D93%
IL-13
D93%
IL-14
D95%
IL-17
D97%
IN-01
D92%
IN-07
D98%
KS-03
D96%
KY-03
D98%
LA-02
D95%
MA-01
D93%
MA-02
D94%
MA-03
D97%
MA-04
D90%
MA-05
D96%
MA-06
D91%
MA-07
D99%
MA-08
D95%
MA-09
D94%
MD-02
D94%
MD-03
D96%
MD-04
D92%
MD-05
D91%
MD-06
D96%
MD-07
D95%
MD-08
D99%
ME-01
D95%
MI-03
D95%
MI-06
D98%
MI-08
D94%
MI-11
D97%
MI-12
D96%
MI-13
D96%
MN-02
D94%
MN-03
D99%
MN-04
D95%
MN-05
D98%
MO-01
D96%
MO-05
D96%
MS-02
D98%
NC-02
D96%
NC-04
D97%
NC-12
D94%
NE-02
D92%
NH-01
D93%
NH-02
D94%
NJ-01
D97%
NJ-03
D93%
NJ-05
D93%
NJ-06
D92%
NJ-08
D98%
NJ-09
D94%
NJ-10
D96%
NJ-11
D94%
NJ-12
D96%
NM-01
D93%
NM-02
D93%
NM-03
D94%
NV-01
D93%
NV-03
D93%
NV-04
D93%
NY-04
D92%
NY-05
D96%
NY-06
D94%
NY-07
D98%
NY-08
D94%
NY-09
D98%
NY-10
D96%
NY-12
D96%
NY-13
D98%
NY-14
D95%
NY-15
D98%
NY-18
D94%
NY-19
D96%
NY-20
D97%
NY-22
D92%
NY-25
D95%
NY-26
D95%
OH-03
D98%
OH-11
D95%
OH-13
D95%
OR-01
D96%
OR-03
D94%
OR-04
D95%
OR-05
D96%
OR-06
D96%
PA-02
D96%
PA-03
D99%
PA-04
D91%
PA-05
D98%
PA-06
D93%
PA-12
D95%
PA-17
D96%
RI-01
D99%
RI-02
D96%
SC-06
D97%
TX-07
D96%
TX-16
D92%
TX-18
D96%
TX-20
D92%
TX-29
D94%
TX-30
D96%
TX-33
D99%
TX-37
D98%
UT-01
D94%
VA-03
D93%
VA-04
D95%
VA-07
D93%
VA-08
D94%
VA-10
D96%
VA-11
D98%
VT-AL
D94%
WA-01
D95%
WA-02
D92%
WA-03
D90%
WA-06
D98%
WA-07
D97%
WA-08
D97%
WA-09
D96%
WA-10
D94%
WI-02
D95%
WI-04
D97%

Likely Democratic

Total 16
AZ-01
D78%
AZ-06
D84%
CO-08
D86%
IA-01
D84%
IA-03
D76%
NJ-07
D88%
NY-03
D86%
NY-16
D76%
OH-01
D87%
OH-07
D80%
PA-07
D84%
PA-10
D80%
TX-15
D81%
TX-28
D88%
TX-34
D84%
VA-02
D80%

Lean Democratic

Total 10
FL-14
D66%
FL-25
D73%
MI-10
D65%
NC-01
D60%
NC-11
D67%
NY-17
D64%
OH-09
D71%
PA-08
D68%
TX-35
D61%
WI-03
D72%

Toss-up

Total 5Dem 4Rep 1
FL-22
D53%
IA-02
D55%
MI-04
R51%
MI-07
D59%
VA-01
D51%

Lean Republican

Total 15
AZ-02
R67%
CO-03
R70%
CO-04
R70%
CO-05
R71%
FL-07
R70%
FL-09
R71%
FL-13
R74%
FL-27
R62%
ME-02
R63%
MO-02
R75%
MT-01
R67%
PA-01
R63%
SC-01
R70%
TX-23
R64%
WI-01
R67%

Likely Republican

Total 37
AK-AL
R86%
AL-02
R76%
AR-02
R84%
AZ-05
R89%
AZ-08
R79%
FL-04
R87%
FL-11
R86%
FL-12
R86%
FL-16
R84%
FL-26
R88%
IL-16
R89%
IN-05
R85%
KS-02
R88%
KY-06
R76%
MN-01
R76%
MN-08
R89%
NC-03
R88%
NC-05
R88%
NC-07
R85%
NC-09
R78%
NC-13
R85%
NC-14
R89%
NE-01
R78%
NJ-02
R77%
NV-02
R76%
NY-01
R83%
NY-02
R87%
NY-21
R82%
OH-10
R86%
OH-15
R76%
OK-05
R88%
TN-09
R87%
TX-09
R82%
TX-31
R89%
TX-32
R88%
VA-05
R81%
WA-05
R84%

Safe Republican

Total 148
AL-01
R93%
AL-03
R98%
AL-04
R98%
AL-05
R96%
AL-06
R97%
AR-01
R94%
AR-03
R93%
AR-04
R98%
AZ-09
R95%
CA-05
R95%
CA-20
R97%
CA-23
R91%
CA-40
R100%
FL-01
R96%
FL-02
R90%
FL-03
R95%
FL-05
R91%
FL-06
R95%
FL-08
R96%
FL-15
R90%
FL-17
R93%
FL-18
R90%
FL-19
R92%
FL-21
R92%
FL-28
R93%
GA-01
R91%
GA-03
R93%
GA-07
R92%
GA-08
R93%
GA-09
R96%
GA-10
R95%
GA-11
R96%
GA-12
R91%
GA-14
R94%
IA-04
R96%
ID-01
R96%
ID-02
R92%
IL-12
R95%
IL-15
R95%
IN-02
R98%
IN-03
R92%
IN-04
R92%
IN-06
R94%
IN-08
R95%
IN-09
R93%
KS-01
R93%
KS-04
R94%
KY-01
R96%
KY-02
R96%
KY-04
R95%
KY-05
R93%
LA-01
R97%
LA-03
R97%
LA-04
R95%
LA-05
R97%
LA-06
R92%
MD-01
R91%
MI-01
R93%
MI-02
R96%
MI-05
R92%
MI-09
R93%
MN-06
R92%
MN-07
R93%
MO-03
R92%
MO-04
R94%
MO-06
R93%
MO-07
R94%
MO-08
R98%
MS-01
R96%
MS-03
R95%
MS-04
R95%
MT-02
R93%
NC-06
R90%
NC-08
R93%
NC-10
R94%
ND-AL
R97%
NE-03
R93%
NJ-04
R91%
NY-11
R90%
NY-23
R96%
NY-24
R94%
OH-02
R97%
OH-04
R96%
OH-05
R94%
OH-06
R96%
OH-08
R91%
OH-12
R96%
OH-14
R96%
OK-01
R95%
OK-02
R93%
OK-03
R98%
OK-04
R96%
OR-02
R93%
PA-09
R96%
PA-11
R90%
PA-13
R93%
PA-14
R93%
PA-15
R97%
PA-16
R92%
SC-02
R90%
SC-03
R94%
SC-04
R95%
SC-05
R93%
SC-07
R93%
SD-AL
R93%
TN-01
R95%
TN-02
R90%
TN-03
R96%
TN-04
R95%
TN-05
R91%
TN-06
R92%
TN-07
R94%
TN-08
R94%
TX-01
R97%
TX-02
R94%
TX-03
R92%
TX-04
R94%
TX-05
R96%
TX-06
R92%
TX-08
R97%
TX-10
R90%
TX-11
R97%
TX-12
R95%
TX-13
R96%
TX-14
R92%
TX-17
R94%
TX-19
R93%
TX-21
R92%
TX-22
R90%
TX-24
R90%
TX-25
R96%
TX-26
R93%
TX-27
R94%
TX-36
R94%
TX-38
R94%
UT-02
R94%
UT-03
R95%
UT-04
R97%
VA-06
R91%
VA-09
R96%
WA-04
R94%
WI-05
R95%
WI-06
R93%
WI-07
R95%
WI-08
R90%
WV-01
R96%
WV-02
R92%
WY-AL
R99%

More markets

141 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$97,903,173 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.62x
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
2.34x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,188,781 vol
Yes
2.81x
No
1.46x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$806,904 vol
Yes
1.14x
No
6.74x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$34,188 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.26x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
3.96x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$604,722 vol
Yes
1.83x
No
1.97x
Other US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$119,017 vol
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
1.83x
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
1.90x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$24,008 vol
Yes
1.46x
No
2.66x
US Elections

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes)

$14,957 vol
Yes, ≥1%
2.59x
Yes, ≥4%
3.66x
Senate

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

$16,896 vol
Yes
4.13x
No
1.23x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?

$26,592 vol
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
1.97x
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
23.4x
US Elections

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

$20,246 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.38x
Referendums

Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?

$12,766 vol
Missouri Amendment 3
1.60x
Virginia Question 1
1.03x
Attorney General

Nevada Attorney General winner?

$4,219 vol
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
1.25x
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
Adriana Guzmán Fralick
4.51x
Attorney General

Georgia Attorney General winner?

$3,127 vol
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
1.93x
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
1.90x
Referendums

Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?

$6,423 vol
Yes
1.07x
No
10.4x
Attorney General

Iowa Attorney General winner?

$24,344 vol
Brenna Bird
Brenna Bird
Brenna Bird
1.44x
Nate Willems
Nate Willems
Nate Willems
2.81x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$19,898 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.07x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
15.6x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$22,267 vol
Amendment 82
1.90x
Amendment 87
1.86x
Secretary of State

Arizona Secretary of State winner?

$4,620 vol
Adrian Fontes
Adrian Fontes
Adrian Fontes
1.20x
Alexander Kolodin
Alexander Kolodin
Alexander Kolodin
4.13x
Attorney General

Florida Attorney General winner?

$2,005 vol
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
James Uthmeier
1.22x
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
José Javier Rodriguez
5.56x
Attorney General

Michigan Attorney General winner?

$7,875 vol
Eli Savit
Eli Savit
Eli Savit
1.33x
Doug Lloyd
Doug Lloyd
Doug Lloyd
3.66x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

$44,606 vol
Economic Development Districts Amendment
1.25x
Water Infrastructure Bond Question
1.08x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$14,133 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.23x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
4.73x
Other US Elections

North Carolina State Senate winner?

$1,875 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.05x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
9.41x

Combos

House

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Below 193
193-197
$3,477,453 vol11 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 249
230-233
$2,270,634 vol12 markets
House

Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Democrats, 8 to 10%
Democrats, 10 to 12%
$1,928,114 vol10 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

7
8
$236,589 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Michigan?

9
8
$63,648 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

9
11
$59,082 vol8 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

12
11
$47,509 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

1
2
$42,695 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in New York?

20
19
$31,898 vol10 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in North Carolina?

5
4
$28,534 vol7 markets

Projected flip races

UT-01
D
Ben McAdamsMcAdams
R
Riley OwenOwen
96%
4%
CA-01
D
Mike McGuireMcGuire
R
James GallagherGallagher*
92%
8%
CA-41
D
Linda SánchezSánchez
R
Mitch ClemmonsClemmons
98%
2%
NE-02
D
Denise PowellPowell
R
Brinker HardingHarding
92%
8%
CA-48
D
Marni von WilpertWilpert
R
Jim DesmondDesmond
90%
10%
TX-15
D
Bobby PulidoPulido
R
Monica De La CruzCruz*
81%
19%
PA-07
D
Bob BrooksBrooks
R
Ryan MackenzieMackenzie*
86%
14%
MT-01
D
Sam ForstagForstag
R
Aaron FlintFlint
34%
66%
FL-14
D
Kathy CastorCastor*
R
Mike BeltranBeltran
65%
35%
FL-25
D
Jared MoskowitzMoskowitz
R
Scott SingerSinger
73%
27%
IA-01
D
Christina BohannanBohannan
R
Mariannette Miller-MeeksMiller-Meeks*
82%
18%
MN-01
D
Jake JohnsonJohnson
R
Brad FinstadFinstad*
24%
76%
NJ-07
D
Rebecca BennettBennett
R
Thomas Kean Jr.Kean*
89%
11%
PA-01
D
Bob HarvieHarvie
R
Brian FitzpatrickFitzpatrick*
37%
63%
TX-28
D
Henry CuellarCuellar*
R
Tano TijerinaTijerina
89%
11%
NY-17
D
Cait ConleyConley
R
Mike LawlerLawler*
63%
37%
OH-07
D
Brian PoindexterPoindexter
R
Max MillerMiller*
79%
21%
MO-05
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
98%
2%
NY-01
D
Chris GallantGallant
R
Nick LaLotaLaLota*
17%
83%
WI-03
D
Rebecca CookeCooke
R
Derrick Van OrdenOrden*
70%
30%
AL-02
D
Shomari FiguresFigures*
R
Rhett MarquesMarques
25%
75%
PA-08
D
Paige CognettiCognetti
R
Rob BresnahanBresnahan*
67%
33%
TX-23
D
Katy Padilla StoutStout
R
Brandon HerreraHerrera*
37%
63%
VA-01
D
Shannon TaylorTaylor
R
Rob WittmanWittman*
51%
49%
WA-03
D
Marie Gluesenkamp PerezPerez*
R
John BraunBraun
90%
10%
1–5 of 435
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