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Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have an 86% chance to control the House

Early forecasts · 79 days to Election
226DemocratsDem seats
218 to win
218to win
RepublicansRep seats200
212 current Democratic seats219 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 195
AL-07
D96%
AZ-03
D92%
AZ-04
D94%
AZ-07
D95%
CA-01
D96%
CA-02
D97%
CA-03
D94%
CA-04
D100%
CA-06
D97%
CA-07
D100%
CA-08
D90%
CA-09
D92%
CA-10
D96%
CA-11
D100%
CA-12
D100%
CA-13
D97%
CA-14
D100%
CA-15
D95%
CA-16
D94%
CA-17
D98%
CA-18
D97%
CA-19
D97%
CA-21
D91%
CA-24
D97%
CA-25
D91%
CA-26
D96%
CA-27
D93%
CA-28
D96%
CA-29
D100%
CA-30
D95%
CA-31
D96%
CA-32
D97%
CA-33
D93%
CA-34
D100%
CA-35
D97%
CA-36
D93%
CA-37
D100%
CA-38
D94%
CA-39
D92%
CA-41
D93%
CA-42
D98%
CA-43
D97%
CA-44
D97%
CA-45
D96%
CA-47
D94%
CA-48
D90%
CA-49
D97%
CA-50
D95%
CA-51
D97%
CO-01
D95%
CO-02
D96%
CO-06
D96%
CO-07
D97%
CT-01
D94%
CT-02
D96%
CT-03
D96%
CT-04
D99%
DE-AL
D97%
FL-10
D95%
FL-20
D96%
FL-23
D94%
FL-24
D96%
GA-02
D95%
GA-04
D97%
GA-05
D98%
GA-06
D92%
GA-13
D95%
HI-01
D97%
HI-02
D97%
IL-01
D90%
IL-02
D97%
IL-03
D97%
IL-04
D96%
IL-05
D97%
IL-06
D97%
IL-07
D97%
IL-08
D93%
IL-09
D95%
IL-10
D97%
IL-11
D93%
IL-13
D96%
IL-14
D94%
IL-17
D95%
IN-01
D90%
IN-07
D96%
KS-03
D92%
KY-03
D94%
LA-02
D99%
MA-01
D97%
MA-02
D97%
MA-03
D97%
MA-04
D97%
MA-05
D96%
MA-06
D93%
MA-07
D99%
MA-08
D97%
MA-09
D97%
MD-02
D95%
MD-03
D98%
MD-04
D91%
MD-05
D91%
MD-06
D92%
MD-07
D96%
MD-08
D96%
ME-01
D96%
MI-03
D90%
MI-04
D93%
MI-06
D91%
MI-08
D94%
MI-11
D93%
MI-12
D98%
MI-13
D99%
MN-02
D95%
MN-03
D99%
MN-04
D94%
MN-05
D98%
MO-01
D99%
MS-02
D96%
NC-02
D96%
NC-04
D99%
NC-12
D95%
NE-02
D91%
NH-02
D95%
NJ-01
D96%
NJ-03
D95%
NJ-05
D99%
NJ-06
D96%
NJ-08
D96%
NJ-10
D98%
NJ-11
D96%
NJ-12
D96%
NM-01
D95%
NM-02
D91%
NM-03
D93%
NV-01
D91%
NV-04
D90%
NY-05
D97%
NY-06
D98%
NY-07
D98%
NY-08
D96%
NY-09
D92%
NY-10
D98%
NY-12
D99%
NY-13
D98%
NY-14
D99%
NY-15
D96%
NY-16
D91%
NY-18
D94%
NY-19
D90%
NY-20
D95%
NY-22
D94%
NY-25
D96%
NY-26
D97%
OH-03
D98%
OH-11
D94%
OH-13
D95%
OR-01
D90%
OR-03
D97%
OR-04
D97%
OR-06
D97%
PA-02
D99%
PA-03
D99%
PA-04
D94%
PA-05
D96%
PA-06
D91%
PA-12
D96%
PA-17
D91%
RI-01
D97%
RI-02
D95%
SC-06
D96%
TX-07
D95%
TX-16
D97%
TX-18
D98%
TX-20
D96%
TX-29
D95%
TX-30
D97%
TX-33
D99%
TX-37
D97%
UT-01
D96%
VA-03
D95%
VA-04
D97%
VA-07
D95%
VA-08
D97%
VA-10
D96%
VA-11
D98%
VT-AL
D96%
WA-01
D96%
WA-02
D99%
WA-06
D97%
WA-07
D97%
WA-08
D94%
WA-09
D95%
WA-10
D97%
WI-02
D95%
WI-04
D98%

Likely Democratic

Total 22
AZ-06
D85%
CA-22
D85%
CA-46
D87%
CA-52
D79%
CO-08
D78%
CT-05
D78%
IA-01
D77%
NH-01
D89%
NJ-07
D87%
NJ-09
D89%
NV-03
D87%
NY-03
D86%
NY-04
D85%
OH-01
D89%
OH-07
D78%
OH-09
D84%
OR-05
D89%
PA-07
D77%
PA-10
D83%
TX-28
D86%
VA-02
D80%
WA-03
D88%

Lean Democratic

Total 9
AZ-01
D65%
FL-14
D62%
FL-25
D69%
IA-03
D64%
MI-07
D66%
NY-17
D67%
PA-08
D60%
TX-34
D71%
WI-03
D70%

Toss-up

Total 9Dem 7Rep 2
CO-03
D52%
IA-02
R56%
MT-01
R60%
NC-01
D55%
NC-11
D55%
PA-01
D58%
TX-15
D54%
TX-35
D54%
VA-01
D57%

Lean Republican

Total 14
AZ-02
R71%
CO-04
R70%
FL-07
R69%
FL-09
R70%
FL-13
R65%
FL-22
R64%
ME-02
R67%
MI-10
R65%
MN-01
R71%
NV-02
R61%
NY-21
R74%
SC-01
R75%
TX-23
R68%
WI-01
R71%

Likely Republican

Total 42
AK-AL
R78%
AL-02
R76%
AR-02
R88%
AZ-05
R87%
AZ-08
R85%
CO-05
R77%
FL-04
R84%
FL-11
R84%
FL-12
R85%
FL-15
R87%
FL-16
R80%
FL-27
R83%
GA-01
R88%
GA-12
R87%
KY-06
R79%
MD-01
R86%
MI-01
R87%
MN-08
R87%
MO-02
R81%
MO-05
R87%
MS-01
R84%
NC-03
R88%
NC-06
R87%
NC-07
R86%
NC-09
R78%
NC-13
R86%
NE-01
R86%
NJ-02
R89%
NY-01
R79%
NY-02
R89%
OH-08
R89%
OH-10
R88%
OH-15
R83%
PA-16
R89%
TN-09
R87%
TX-09
R82%
TX-24
R88%
TX-32
R81%
VA-05
R85%
WA-05
R80%
WI-06
R89%
WI-08
R87%

Safe Republican

Total 144
AL-01
R96%
AL-03
R96%
AL-04
R96%
AL-05
R93%
AL-06
R95%
AR-01
R97%
AR-03
R95%
AR-04
R93%
AZ-09
R91%
CA-05
R91%
CA-20
R96%
CA-23
R91%
CA-40
R100%
FL-01
R92%
FL-02
R93%
FL-03
R92%
FL-05
R92%
FL-06
R91%
FL-08
R93%
FL-17
R96%
FL-18
R90%
FL-19
R90%
FL-21
R90%
FL-26
R90%
FL-28
R91%
GA-03
R94%
GA-07
R91%
GA-08
R92%
GA-09
R95%
GA-10
R92%
GA-11
R93%
GA-14
R95%
IA-04
R92%
ID-01
R96%
ID-02
R94%
IL-12
R95%
IL-15
R94%
IL-16
R91%
IN-02
R91%
IN-03
R96%
IN-04
R92%
IN-05
R90%
IN-06
R95%
IN-08
R96%
IN-09
R93%
KS-01
R93%
KS-02
R91%
KS-04
R92%
KY-01
R96%
KY-02
R94%
KY-04
R93%
KY-05
R97%
LA-01
R96%
LA-03
R96%
LA-04
R94%
LA-05
R94%
LA-06
R92%
MI-02
R95%
MI-05
R92%
MI-09
R95%
MN-06
R91%
MN-07
R96%
MO-03
R94%
MO-04
R92%
MO-06
R97%
MO-07
R98%
MO-08
R98%
MS-03
R95%
MS-04
R97%
MT-02
R94%
NC-05
R90%
NC-08
R90%
NC-10
R90%
NC-14
R91%
ND-AL
R95%
NE-03
R98%
NJ-04
R95%
NY-11
R94%
NY-23
R90%
NY-24
R90%
OH-02
R91%
OH-04
R94%
OH-05
R92%
OH-06
R92%
OH-12
R91%
OH-14
R93%
OK-01
R91%
OK-02
R96%
OK-03
R97%
OK-04
R96%
OK-05
R96%
OR-02
R96%
PA-09
R94%
PA-11
R91%
PA-13
R95%
PA-14
R95%
PA-15
R93%
SC-02
R90%
SC-03
R98%
SC-04
R93%
SC-05
R93%
SC-07
R92%
SD-AL
R95%
TN-01
R96%
TN-02
R96%
TN-03
R96%
TN-04
R94%
TN-05
R90%
TN-06
R95%
TN-07
R92%
TN-08
R90%
TX-01
R96%
TX-02
R91%
TX-03
R93%
TX-04
R94%
TX-05
R91%
TX-06
R94%
TX-08
R95%
TX-10
R91%
TX-11
R95%
TX-12
R91%
TX-13
R96%
TX-14
R94%
TX-17
R91%
TX-19
R95%
TX-21
R93%
TX-22
R91%
TX-25
R92%
TX-26
R92%
TX-27
R92%
TX-31
R90%
TX-36
R92%
TX-38
R90%
UT-02
R95%
UT-03
R95%
UT-04
R95%
VA-06
R91%
VA-09
R96%
WA-04
R93%
WI-05
R91%
WI-07
R92%
WV-01
R94%
WV-02
R96%
WY-AL
R95%

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1.60x
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2.46x
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1.36x
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$11,695 vol
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1.15x
Public Question 1
1.12x
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Will Kentucky vote to limit gubernatorial election-period pardons?

$5,140 vol
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1.06x
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Proposal 4
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$5,540 vol
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$3,428 vol
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1.29x
Question 2
1.05x
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$11,516 vol
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1.36x
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1.15x
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1.23x
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Combos

House

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Below 193
198-202
$2,410,424 vol11 markets
House

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234-237
226-229
$1,101,957 vol12 markets
House

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Democrats, 6 to 8%
$865,067 vol10 markets
House

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7
8
$193,816 vol7 markets
Seat Count

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1
2
$39,113 vol4 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

11
12
$34,559 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama?

1
2
$9,061 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Louisiana?

1
Above 2
$7,320 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Utah?

1
2
$6,297 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Tennessee?

0
1
$4,896 vol4 markets

Projected flip races

CA-01
D
Mike McGuireMcGuire
R
James GallagherGallagher*
96%
4%
UT-01
D
Ben McAdamsMcAdams
R
Riley OwenOwen
94%
6%
TN-06
D
Mike CroleyCroley
R
Johnny GarrettGarrett
49%
51%
CA-41
D
Linda SánchezSánchez
R
Mitch ClemmonsClemmons
97%
3%
MI-04
D
Sean McCannMcCann
R
Bill HuizengaHuizenga*
58%
42%
TX-15
D
Bobby PulidoPulido
R
Monica De La CruzCruz*
53%
47%
OH-07
D
Brian PoindexterPoindexter
R
Max MillerMiller*
76%
24%
AL-02
D
Shomari FiguresFigures*
R
Rhett MarquesMarques
25%
75%
FL-22
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
35%
65%
WI-03
D
Rebecca CookeCooke
R
Derrick Van OrdenOrden*
69%
31%
MN-01
D
Jake JohnsonJohnson
R
Brad FinstadFinstad*
30%
70%
NC-01
D
Don DavisDavis*
R
Laurie BuckhoutBuckhout
57%
43%
CA-22
D
Randy VillegasVillegas
R
David ValadaoValadao*
85%
15%
VA-06
D
Beth MacyMacy
R
Ben ClineCline*
8%
92%
TX-28
D
Henry CuellarCuellar*
R
Tano TijerinaTijerina
81%
19%
CA-06
D
Richard PanPan
I
Kevin KileyKiley
98%
2%
VA-05
D
Tom PerrielloPerriello
R
John McGuireMcGuire*
15%
85%
NE-02
D
Denise PowellPowell
R
Brinker HardingHarding
77%
23%
SC-06
D
Jim ClyburnClyburn*
R
John PetersonPeterson
95%
5%
NY-21
D
Blake GendebienGendebien
R
Anthony ConstantinoConstantino
26%
74%
TX-23
D
Katy Padilla StoutStout
R
Brandon HerreraHerrera*
34%
66%
TX-07
D
Lizzie FletcherFletcher*
R
Alexander HaleHale
93%
7%
LA-06
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
8%
92%
FL-10
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
97%
3%
OR-06
D
Andrea SalinasSalinas*
R
David RussRuss
97%
3%
1–5 of 435
Showing 5 of 435