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Trending

Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats favored to hold 25 seats, Republicans favored to hold 23 seats, with 2 toss-ups

Early forecasts · 79 days to Election
25Democrats
Republicans23
24 current Democratic seats26 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 13
DCalifornia95%DColorado95%DConnecticut99%DHawaii97%DIllinois96%DMassachusetts94%DMaryland98%DMaine94%DMinnesota92%DNew Mexico90%DNew York93%DPennsylvania94%DRhode Island94%

Likely Democratic

Total 3
DArizona87%DMichigan84%DOregon86%

Lean Democratic

Total 3
DGeorgia60%DIowa73%DWisconsin72%

Toss-up

Total 2Dem 2Rep 0
DAlaska51%DOhio51%

Lean Republican

Total 2
RKansas67%RNevada62%

Likely Republican

Total 3
RFlorida81%RNew Hampshire86%RTexas87%

Safe Republican

Total 10
RAlabama90%RArkansas97%RIdaho97%RNebraska91%ROklahoma97%RSouth Carolina95%RSouth Dakota96%RTennessee97%RVermont93%RWyoming96%

Combos

Governor

Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Democratic Party
Republican Party
$209,715 vol3 markets
Governor

Closest Governor race this year?

Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
$54,143 vol14 markets
Governor Combos

Will Democrats sweep all swing state Governor races?

Yes
No
$34,656 vol1 market
Governor Combos

How many Governors will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 1
Exactly 2
$3,677 vol6 markets
Governor Combos

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

At least 24
At least 23
$1,444 vol8 markets
California
D
Xavier BecerraBecerra
R
Steve HiltonHilton
95%
5%
Ohio
D
Amy ActonActon
R
Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy
52%
48%
Wisconsin
D
David CrowleyCrowley
R
Tom TiffanyTiffany
71%
29%
New York
D
Kathy HochulHochul*
R
Bruce BlakemanBlakeman
93%
7%
Nevada
D
Aaron FordFord
R
Joe LombardoLombardo*
37%
63%
Texas
D
Gina HinojosaHinojosa
R
Greg AbbottAbbott*
15%
85%
Georgia
D
Keisha Lance BottomsBottoms
R
Rick JacksonJackson
58%
42%
Arizona
D
Katie HobbsHobbs*
R
Andy BiggsBiggs
86%
14%
Pennsylvania
D
Josh ShapiroShapiro*
R
Stacy GarrityGarrity
94%
6%
Iowa
D
Rob SandSand
R
Zach LahnLahn
72%
28%
Michigan
D
Jocelyn BensonBenson
R
John JamesJames
84%
16%
Minnesota
D
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
R
Lisa DemuthDemuth
93%
7%
Florida
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
21%
79%
Oregon
D
Tina KotekKotek*
R
Christine DrazanDrazan
84%
16%
Massachusetts
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
93%
7%
Alaska
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
51%
49%
Colorado
D
Phil WeiserWeiser
R
Victor MarxMarx
95%
5%
Oklahoma
D
Cyndi MunsonMunson
R
Republican partyRepublican
5%
95%
Alabama
D
Doug JonesJones
R
Tommy TubervilleTuberville
10%
90%
Vermont
D
Amanda JanooJanoo
R
Phil ScottScott*
9%
91%
1–5 of 36
Showing 5 of 36

More markets

128 events
MarketPays outOdds
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$718,660 vol
Yes
2.66x
No
1.50x
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$91,812,853 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.46x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.81x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?

$43,145 vol
Economic Development Districts Amendment
1.31x
Water Infrastructure Bond Question
1.15x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?

$24,086 vol
Amendment 2
1.52x
Amendment 4
1.26x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?

$17,663 vol
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
2.73x
Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
1.20x
US Elections

Will Iowa vote to require a two-thirds vote to raise the income tax?

$11,864 vol
Yes
1.16x
No
4.73x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$27,206 vol
Proposition 318
2.24x
Proposition 142
1.60x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?

$23,055 vol
Property Tax Millage
1.73x
Retirement Debt Funding
1.62x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$19,461 vol
Initiative #109
1.70x
Proposition NN
1.67x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?

$9,715 vol
Legislative Salaries Amendment
1.40x
School Election Dates Amendment
1.36x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Indiana?

$11,695 vol
Public Question 2
1.15x
Public Question 1
1.12x
US Elections

Will Kentucky vote to limit gubernatorial election-period pardons?

$5,140 vol
Yes
1.06x
No
13.4x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Vermont?

$7,608 vol
Proposal 3
1.22x
Proposal 4
1.14x
US Elections

Will New Hampshire vote to eliminate the register of probate office?

$4,313 vol
Yes
3.18x
No
1.38x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in North Dakota?

$3,713 vol
Constitutional Measure 2
1.67x
Constitutional Measure 1
7.85x
US Elections

Will Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value?

$5,540 vol
Yes
2.89x
No
1.31x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Virginia?

$3,428 vol
Question 3
1.29x
Question 2
1.05x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Georgia?

$11,516 vol
Nonpartisan Elections for Probate Judges Amendment
1.36x
9-1-1 Fund Amendment
1.15x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Oklahoma?

$3,472 vol
State Question 847
1.23x
State Question 845
1.20x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Utah?

$3,154 vol
60% Vote for Tax-Raising Initiatives
1.36x
Constitutional Amendment Publication
1.34x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Missouri?

$2,987 vol
Amendment 8
1.40x
Amendment 7
4.51x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin?

$3,280 vol
Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment
1.57x
Prohibit Government Discrimination or Preferential Treatment Amendment
1.42x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?

$13,415 vol
Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond
1.15x
Environment & Water Bond
1.14x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Tennessee?

$6,305 vol
Amendment 2
1.19x
Amendment 1
1.13x