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The “S&P” for politics, powered by Kalshi markets — one number to represent the shifts in political power.
Learn more
Senate
House
Governor
Balance of Power
The “S&P” for politics, powered by Kalshi markets — one number to represent the shifts in political power.
Learn more
Republicans
have a
99% chance
to control the Senate
Senate forecast
Democrats
have an
86% chance
to control the House
House forecast
Combos
Senate
Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
D-House, D-Senate
47
%
D-House, R-Senate
39
%
$9,612,972 vol
4 markets
Senate
New Hampshire Governor-Senate combo
Republican Governor, Democratic Senator
71
%
Democrats sweep
11
%
$51,702 vol
4 markets
Senate
Iowa Governor-Senate combo
Rob Sand and Josh Turek win
35
%
Zach Lahn and Ashley Hinson win
38
%
$38,131 vol
4 markets
Senate
Blue tsunami this year?
Yes
39
%
No
61
%
$341,371 vol
1 market
Senate
Blue wave this year?
Yes
76
%
No
24
%
$370,027 vol
1 market
Senate
Georgia Governor-Senate combo
Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff win
58
%
Rick Jackson and Jon Ossoff win
42
%
$47,735 vol
4 markets
US Elections
Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?
Governor
82
%
Attorney General
86
%
$39,205 vol
9 markets
Senate
Kansas Governor-Senate combo
Republicans sweep
83
%
Democratic Governor, Republican Senator
21
%
$17,894 vol
4 markets
House
2026: Trump’s bad year?
Yes
7
%
No
93
%
$247,838 vol
1 market
House
2026: Trump’s dream year?
Yes
3
%
No
97
%
$561,287 vol
1 market
Senate
Minnesota Governor-Senate combo
Democrats sweep
87
%
Democratic Governor, Republican Senator
11
%
$32,282 vol
4 markets
California
LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
60
%
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
37
%
$40,720 vol
4 markets
Senate
Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)
Yes
57
%
No
43
%
$14,420 vol
1 market
Mixed Combos
Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race this year?
Yes
42
%
No
58
%
$6,342 vol
1 market
Senate
Red wave this year?
Yes
10
%
No
90
%
$5,463 vol
1 market
Senate
Ohio Governor-Senate combo
Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win
39
%
Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted win
36
%
$4,938 vol
4 markets
Mixed Combos
How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress this year?
At least 1
19
%
At least 3
15
%
$21,450 vol
10 markets
Senate
Maine Governor-Senate combo
Democrats sweep
62
%
Democratic Governor, Republican Senator
34
%
$25,066 vol
4 markets
Senate
How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)
At least 4
56
%
At least 5
44
%
$345 vol
8 markets
Senate
How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year?
3
25
%
5
23
%
$3,220 vol
7 markets
Senate
Iowa Blue Wave Combo
Yes
21
%
No
79
%
$15,801 vol
1 market
Senate
Alaska Governor-Senate combo
Republicans sweep
30
%
Democrats sweep
35
%
$32,640 vol
4 markets
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
2026 Midterms
Trending
Frequency
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
